The Scranton Times gave some attention to the finances of State Senate candidates, so I thought today wouldn’t be a bad day to do a little round-up of the race, which I’ve been working on for the past few days. The reason this race fascinates me more than many others is because it’s extraordinarily hard to make a prediction. I frankly have no clue who the front-runner is and I have no idea who will win.
So, let’s take a look:
John Blake is a “regular guy” according to the article, though he made $123,000 a year working for the State. That doesn’t sound remotely regular and is probably more than triple what most people in NEPA make. This aggravated me, which is why it’s here. As for analysis, Blake will likely do well in the Midvalley and even the Upvalley, as there are no Upvalley candidates in the race. Joe Corcoran has a lot of connections up here from his Commissioner days, but regions tend to be loyal to their sons. I don’t see Blake doing well outside this area, as he doesn’t have a high profile. His yard signs are hard to read, are poorly designed, and have too much on them.
Joe Corcoran has a long history that he can call on as the former Commissioner of Lackawanna County. That said, he got voted out after the Prison scandal. Sure, the Times slandered him (and are rightly getting sued for it), but do the voters know? Also, the national political climate is anti-incumbent. Joe, of course, isn’t an incumbent, but he is an old face and people might be wanting fresh faces. He will have a decent base in Scranton, particularly North Scranton and the Plot, but those areas aren’t big enough to carry him. He also has the potential to do decently in the Midvalley and Upvalley given his connection to Alberigi (former Commissioner with whom he got his start). In Scranton, he’ll likely end up splitting some votes with Phillips. He should benefit from some name recognition, but, as I said, that may be tempered by the circumstances surrounding his ouster. People may feel he had his time.
Chris Doherty arguably has the highest profile in the race, this is both good and bad for him. His constant battles with Evans might not look good to residents outside the city, as it may seem as though he doesn’t have his own house in order. However, a lot of his money has come from the Abingtons over the years, so expect him to do well there. Not only that, I expect there to be an absolutely solid 4,000 votes in the City of Scranton that reliably vote Doherty whenever he runs. There are a few schools of thought on how the City will go, one says that anti-Doherty people will vote for him to get him out, the other says they won’t back him because, hey, they’re still not fans. The area of Scranton to watch is West Side. No candidates have deep West Side connections, and it’s the largest voting bloc of the city. Without DiBileo in a race against Doherty, it’s up for grabs. My gut feeling says Phillips will do well here, but it’s anybody’s game. As for the rest of the district, Doherty is supposedly doing well in Monroe and spent a lot of time down there early on.
Chris Phillips is a worker. He got his name out by prominently opposing the sale of the South Side complex and got himself elected to Scranton School Board. I would call him the dark horse in the race, because people will inevitably underestimate this man’s tenacity. He is perhaps the most active in the race in social media (like Facebook) and he was the first one running. His base will be in Scranton, but Joe Corcoran’s presence in the race will likely cut into his vote totals. Mayor Doherty supporters likely wouldn’t be voting for him anyway. If he can pick up a lot of votes in West Side, Phillips can do very well. As the first guy in the race (he was actively putting out feelers before Mellow ever thought of retirement), he was also the first in Monroe County, which, something tells me, might not be getting as much attention from candidates as it should.
Frank Scavo is the only Republican in the race and will get his party’s nomination. He is a Teabagger and was hard for me to speak to, as per my previous post on my meeting with him, because his views are so illogical. He sent me a press release on health care that contained a blatant Republican lie/talking point and I asked him to back it up with facts, which he never did. I’m sure I’ll be writing more about him in the fall. I honestly enjoy analyzing Teabagger “logic”.
Chuck Volpe is the wealthiest man in the race, and that goes a long, long way. If Phillips is the dark horse, Volpe is the wild card. He has blanketed the district with advertising of every kind, and I think I’ve gotten a letter from him once a day for the past week. I got a phone call from a relative recently telling me she thinks he’s the bees knees. Volpe is very conservative, which scares me. He also hasn’t really said what he’s going to do, he said what he’s NOT going to do. No pay, no per diems, etc. Well, that’s not a platform. But the mood is so anti-incumbent, he’s capitalizing on it. Smart man, smart campaign. If he wins, it’s because he bought the race. I don’t trust money, frankly. So between that and the lack of information on what he actually thinks, on the issues, Volpe is not very ideal. That may change, however.
Jim Wansacz has a solid Downvalley base to call on, as well as a district that overwhelmingly supports him. He has, however, gotten a lot of bad press in the Scranton Times, and so is likely suffering in the court of public opinion. This will make it hard for him to break out of his base. He has quite a bit of money on hand, though, and he was the first up with an ad. He also knows how to pound pavement and will likely knock on a lot of doors before this is over.
That’s my look at where the race is at. I have no clue who is the frontrunner. I have a poll on the right, Doherty and Phillips are topping it. It’s unscientific, but feel free to express your opinion. It’ll feed my curiosity, at the least.
Any thoughts from all of you out there in readerland?